UK Diplomats Advised Against Military Action to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Recently released papers reveal that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military intervention to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Reveal Deliberations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the files were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military intervention would result in heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we judge that no nation in Africa would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper continues: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We should work out a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.