The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Drives Aston Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid
It was two months ago that the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him for missing a pass in behind. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. When the England international swept in his second strike to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win any of their first six games, find themselves only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
This is a particularly tough proposition to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding during this run, even as the wins have piled up.
As per Opta, in only two games have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, bent just inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents had more shots and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival they must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the North End after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.