Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several figures on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.