Daily Homicides in Mexico Decline Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Data

The average number of per-day homicides monthly in the country has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh administrative data. However, security experts have warned that homicide figures might not signal better countrywide stability.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Numbers

There was an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November compared with almost 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidency in September. This announcement was provided by the director of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we’ve had during these past months is very significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, noting that in November the least figure of homicides were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to confront the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent years. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety approach for an seemingly more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President stated: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and there is specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Increased coordination between various departments.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

But, public safety analysts warned that relying on murder data to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is particularly true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be positive news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the identical period the previous year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not useful for gauging the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the inclination to correctly identify and categorize bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly means of daily killings was also an issue because it might mask days when there were especially high numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily mean renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the administration can highlight the success of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for major crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

But in spite of these efforts, Mexico is still beset by high violence, with several states in the throes of cartel-fueled conflict. Last month there was a prominent killing of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to express their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to construct a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst concluded.