‘A Critical Scenario’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now being felt in India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran impede energy deliveries through the key maritime chokepoint, supplies of kitchen fuel are tightening across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies grow. Businesses appear the hardest struck: the most severe shortage is in food service establishments.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply cannot be found," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most eateries run either on business-grade gas tanks or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being experienced across the country. "Numerous restaurants have ceased operations - some in northern India, many in the south. People are adopting traditional burners and electric cookers to keep food preparation going."

City-Specific Fallout

In Mumbai, media reports say up to a significant portion of hospitality businesses are already completely or partially closed as business fuel stocks dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some restaurants say their gas stocks have shrunk with minimal reserves. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is truly dismal. Commerce will take a hit," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies ebb and flow. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers report a surge in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Official Position

Yet, the officials states there is sufficient stock.

India has more than 300 million household consumers and authorities say cylinders are being prioritized to households as tensions from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

About 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the strategic bottleneck now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.

The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for home needs, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for critical services such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been caused by false reports. The standard supply timeline for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a ministry representative.

Growing Panic

Now the anxiety is extending beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of scooters outside a fuel station. "Anxiety is palpable," the text reads.

According to reports from market experts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be overstated.

India imports 90% of its crude oil. Around 50% of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The key weakness is kitchen fuel, experts note.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.

Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be partially mitigated through alternative sourcing. Refined product supply remains largely sufficient. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just scarcity but erratic supply chains - and the common threat of stockpiling.

An industry representative states exploitative practices.

"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."

For now, India's oil supplies may be cushioned by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next gas canister.